Climate change will likely be a significant driver of biodiversity change and loss over the next hundred years, according to a peer-reviewed article in this week’s Science magazine. The article finds that climate change will probably be the second leading contributor to biodiversity loss after land use changes by the year 2100. The article, “Global Biodiversity Scenarios for the Year 2100,” was co-authored by a group of 19 scientists including Environmental Defense ecologist Janine Bloomfield.

“The findings in Science underscore the fragility of our planet’s natural ecosystems and the threat posed to those systems from unchecked global warming,” said Bloomfield. “Responsible and affordable actions must be taken now to conserve energy and cut greenhouse gas pollution.”

While land use changes such as encroaching sprawl and deforestation have long been known to cause habitat and biodiversity losses, the Science article shows the additional impact climate change can have on ecosystems.

Warming over the last century and particularly in the last two decades illustrates the vulnerability of species to climate change. For example:

  • Adelie penguin populations in Antarctica have declined 33% in the last 25 years due to shrinking sea ice in response to rapidly rising local temperatures.

  • An analysis of shoreline sea life in Monterey Bay, California showed southern species have increased significantly while northern species have declined, probably in response to rising sea surface temperatures over a 60-year period.

  • Alpine plants in the Austrian and Swiss Alps moved higher up on mountain slopes over a 70 to 90 year period, in response to an increase in average annual temperatures.

“Global warming has been identified by the Science report as one of the future ‘hidden killers’ of already struggling natural systems around the world,” said Robert Bonnie, an Environmental Defense wildlife specialist. “Species close to the brink of extinction may be pushed over the abyss by the added stress of climate change. Only by acting now to cut greenhouse gas pollution can large changes be averted.”

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