Climate Leadership States Could Cut U.S. “Emissions Gap” in 2030 by Nearly Half, if Governors Deliver on Commitments

(WASHINGTON – July 13, 2023) A new EDF report finds that if climate leadership states were to successfully meet their emissions targets, they would bring the entire country meaningfully closer to its national climate goals. The report, which analyzes data from Rhodium Group’s U.S. Climate Service and includes projected reductions from the Inflation Reduction Act, finds that states with climate commitments can shrink the nation’s remaining emissions gap to our 2030 target by 43% if they adopt ambitious and comprehensive policy to limit pollution at scale.

On their current path without additional policy action, these 23 states and Puerto Rico are collectively projected to reduce net emissions 20% to 23% below 2005 levels by 2025 and 27% to 39% below 2005 levels by 2030, well short of their commitments to reach at least a 26% reduction by 2025 and at least 50% by 2030.

“States have a leading role to play in driving U.S. climate progress, and our country is counting on them to deliver on their promises,” said Pam Kiely, Associate Vice President for U.S. Climate at Environmental Defense Fund. “There’s never been a better time for states to use the sharpest tools they have available—policies that directly limit climate pollution from major emissions sources—to ensure they will deliver on their commitments. Federal investments have made clean energy cheaper than ever before, giving governors a multi-billion-dollar opportunity to raise their climate ambition. Going further, faster to achieve their own goals can help realize the promise of our federal climate law and shrink the gap to our nation’s 2030 commitment. This is the golden opportunity for each state to slash health-harming air pollution, unleash clean energy jobs, lower energy costs, and do its part to secure a safer future for us all.”

The report looks at states that have committed to reduce their emissions in line with U.S. goals: at least a 26-28% reduction below 2005 levels by 2025 and 50-52% reduction below 2005 levels by 2030. These 23 states and Puerto Rico represent 41% of total U.S. emissions. To date, only 10 of these states have established mandatory economy-wide climate targets in state law.

In addition to analyzing states’ progress on emissions targets and potential impact on U.S. emission reductions, the report also estimates the cumulative impact of delaying ambitious action aligned with states’ targets. Because long-lived greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide can remain in the atmosphere for centuries, the cumulative build-up of these emissions over time will determine the severity of climate damages. The analysis finds that without further policy action, climate leadership states are projected to emit 28% more climate pollution between 2020 and 2030 than a path aligned with their science-based goals – overshooting the emissions “budget” by over 5 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent.

“Many states are already living the reality of climate change-fueled impacts, whether their communities are sheltering from wildfire smoke, sweltering in heat waves or dealing with damages from historic flooding,” said Kiely. “When the stakes are this high and the timeline is so urgent, every ton of heat-trapping pollution we emit matters. States can’t afford to kick policy down the road. They have committed to do their part to curb pollution as swiftly as possible this decade, and they have a responsibility to follow through and get on track.”

To meet their climate commitments, EDF makes several policy recommendations for state leaders:

• Set binding targets that achieve early and deep reductions: Mandatory targets that create an enforceable framework are key for reducing emissions at the pace and scale the climate crisis demands. Without mandatory targets, climate action could be stalled or rolled back by future state leaders.
• Use existing authority to limit pollution: Regardless of state legislative action on climate solutions, governors committing to concrete pollution reduction targets can leverage existing authority to enact regulations that lower climate pollution.
• Establish a declining, enforceable limit on emissions: A pollution limit – like Washington state’s economy-wide limit on emissions – is essential to provide a backstop for other complementary policies, guaranteeing the targeted emission cuts will be achieved, even if other policies fall short. Limits can be source-specific, sectoral, or cover multiple sectors of the economy.
• Pair pollution limits with policies that catalyze development and deployment of clean technologies: Enforceable limits on climate pollution can work hand-in-hand with measures needed to accelerate clean technology deployment, like clean energy mandates and electric vehicle incentives, while providing the greatest possible certainty that states will reach their climate targets.
• Ensure environmental and economic benefits are directed to disproportionately-impacted communities: Strategies for limiting climate pollution must be tailored to improve local pollution impacts and directly support clean energy deployment and economic benefits for the most overburdened and underserved populations.
• Consider an approach that puts a price on pollution: By pairing an enforceable pollution limit with a price on pollution, as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative does, states can secure the needed level of emission reductions, while creating a price signal that incentivizes investments in clean energy technologies.

Read the blog summary here and full report here.